Fulbright-University of Oulu Scholar Julie Shortridge giving a talk at the University of Oulu
Fulbright Finland News Magazine

Assessing Climate Change Tipping Points in a Rapidly Warming Arctic

16 December 2024 • Text: Julie Shortridge

At first glance, Northern Finland might appear to have very little in common with my home in Virginia. However, the two places have one unfortunate thing in common: both are experiencing some of the fastest local climatic changes on the planet.

Virginia has one of the highest rates of local sea level rise in the U.S. Meanwhile, the Arctic region is warming four times more quickly than the rest of the world. This means that both are already experiencing a degree of climate change that other places may not see for several decades. We urgently need to minimize the harm resulting from these changes. At the same time, we can use this as an opportunity to understand how climate change can impact communities in unexpected ways.

For my Fulbright project, I am working with colleagues at the University of Oulu to understand whether rapid warming could contribute to “tipping points” that significantly impact local communities. These tipping points can happen because climate change doesn’t occur in a vacuum, but interacts with other social, economic, and environmental pressures.

I am partnering with the Frontiers of Arctic and Global Resilience research initiative, which has an innovative emphasis on cross-cutting research methods to solve complex problems related to climate change. Additionally, my colleagues in the Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering Research Unit have worked extensively on climate change impacts to water resources in northern environments.

We’ll be assessing the potential for climate change tipping points in the Kiiminkijoki river basin. The land around the Kiiminkijoki has already been heavily shaped by human actions, with 60% of the basin’s peatlands drained over the past century to support forestry, farming, and energy production. This has led to water pollution and loss of salmon in the river; these problems may worsen as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns change.

Meeting Finland’s goals for carbon neutrality, water quality, and nature restoration will rely on sustainably restoring landscapes like the Kiiminkijoki in a way that aligns with the values of local community members.

Ultimately, this can help us develop adaptation and resilience efforts that better account for interactions between people and their environment to reduce climate change risks.

In our project, we will analyze these complex challenges by treating the Kiiminkijoki basin as a socio-environmental system where people interact with the natural and engineered parts of their environment. We will host a workshop where researchers across multiple fields work together to assess whether these interactions could lead to tipping points. The workshop outcomes will then be incorporated into a computational model that simulates social and environmental processes to understand how these tipping points could unfold in the future.

By comparing our outcomes in Finland with similar work that I’ve conducted in Virginia, we’ll be able to refine the methodologies we use to identify and understand climatic tipping points in other socio-environmental systems.

Ultimately, this can help us develop adaptation and resilience efforts that better account for interactions between people and their environment to reduce climate change risks.

Read the whole Fulbright Finland News magazine 2/2024!

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